To write a theory of change you can test, name the problem you’re starting from, the activities you’ll run, the outcomes you expect, the impact you’re aiming for, and the assumptions the whole chain depends on. Write it as a series of if-then statements, not a paragraph of good intentions.
Most people I’ve worked with can describe their activities in detail and their hoped-for impact in one sentence. What’s missing is the middle, the outcomes and the assumptions that have to hold for the first to produce the second. That missing middle is usually where the plan actually breaks.
Why this is harder than it looks
A theory of change is the logic that connects what you do to the change you want to see, spelled out step by step.
The distinction that changes how you see it
A logic model is the schematic version, boxes and arrows. A theory of change adds the why and the assumptions behind each arrow. The logic model shows what connects to what. The theory of change explains why you believe that connection will hold, and what has to be true for it to.
The elements, in order
Name the starting problem
Name the starting problem and exactly who it affects.
List the real activities
List the activities you’ll actually run, not the ones that sound good in a proposal.
Define the outcomes
Define the outcomes, the short and medium-term changes you expect to see first.
State the impact
State the impact, the lasting transformation you’re ultimately aiming for.
Write down your assumptions
This is where the weak links hide, and where most theories of change fail quietly.
Chain it as if-then
If we run these activities, then these outcomes should follow. If these outcomes appear, then this impact should follow.
A concrete example
A job-search workshop’s theory of change: if participants learn how to present their experience clearly (activity), then they apply to more relevant roles with stronger materials (outcome), then they secure interviews and, eventually, employment (impact), provided the local job market has enough open roles to apply to (assumption). Naming that last assumption matters. In a market with no open roles, the same workshop produces confident applicants and no jobs.
What’s next?
Once your theory of change is written, the next step is picking the metric that tells you whether each link is holding. See how to choose an impact metric you can actually track. Theory of change work sits inside Impact, one of the five elements of the Method.
Next step: Read the Method →, or see how to choose an impact metric you can actually track.
FAQ
What’s the difference between a theory of change and a logic model?
A logic model maps activities to outcomes. A theory of change adds why you believe that connection holds and the assumptions it depends on.
Do I need to be running a nonprofit to use one?
No. Any project claiming to produce change benefits from naming the logic and assumptions behind that claim, a business initiative included.
How do I start writing mine?
Start from the end. Write down the impact you’re aiming for first, then work backward through outcomes to activities. It’s easier to spot missing links working in that direction than starting from activities and hoping they add up.
